Two weeks ago, I wrote about how Alphaproof, a new math AI capable of tackling new problems, poses a problem for loss of jobs in the future. Should we guarantee a minimum income for people who may lose their job?

Recently, the findings of a three-year basic income study conducted under the leadership of Sam Altman, the CEO of ChatGPT, were revealed.

Sam Altman expressed his interest in exploring the concept of basic income due to the expectation of technology replacing jobs. In a blog post, he mentioned, “I think that, combined with innovation driving down the cost of having a great life, by doing something like this we could eventually make real progress towards eliminating poverty.”

3,000 lower-income individuals from Illinois and Texas, with 1,000 receiving $1,000 a month and 2,000 receiving $50 a month. The study lasted three years, starting in 2020. Researchers tracked spending, health, employment, and other personal metrics. The study focused on the impact of cash transfers on essentials like food, housing, and transportation, as well as health and employment outcomes.

Key Findings of the Study

• Increased Spending: Recipients spent $310 more per month on essentials like food, housing, and transportation

• Health and Leisure: Recipients worked 1.3 hours less per week, had more leisure time, and were more likely to visit hospitals and get dental care.

• Business Initiatives: Black and female recipients were more likely to have business ideas and plan to start a business within five years.

• Mixed Results: Improvements in stress and food security were noted initially but faded by the second year due to factors like inflation and loss of pandemic-era aid. No significant effects on physical health.

  
  

Differing Perspectives on Basic Income Studies

• Mixed Public Opinion: Public opinion on universal basic income (UBI) is divided. Some polls show nearly equal support and opposition among Americans. According to a 2020 Pew Research Center survey, over half of U.S. adults were against a $1,000 monthly basic income for adults.

• Economic Impact: Studies, such as the one supported by Sam Altman, indicate that a guaranteed income can result in slight reductions in working hours, enabling individuals to enjoy more leisure time and independence.

• Poverty Alleviation: Research from institutions like Stanford indicates that UBI can help reduce poverty and inequality, especially in low- and middle-income countries. But, there isn't a place in the U.S. where someone can live on just $1,000 a month, so they will still have to work for their needs beyond the $1,000.

• Policy Design: The effectiveness of UBI can depend on its design and the context in which it is implemented.

The study plans to explore several future directions, some of which are investigating how cash transfers affect housing stability and neighborhood quality, analyzing changes in recipients’ political views, examining the effects on recipients’ children, and publishing more results on various aspects of the cash transfers’ impact.

Honestly, I think that $1,000 is not enough for people to not have a job. Should Sam Altman run another study where people would receive $5,000 a month for 5 years? What would be the conclusion then? Another problem that I have with the study's suggested solution is: where would the money come from? Would it come from the government, or a private sector?

Reference:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/07/24/guaranteed-basic-income-study-sam-altman/74506183007/

How much is $1,000 a month worth? New study explores impact of basic income - USA Today July 24, 2024.